The over-all healthcare industry is experiencing a major transformation as it passages from a volume-based business to a value-based business. With growing demands from people for superior healthcare quality and increased value, healthcare providers and payers are under stress to deliver better outcomes. In addition to systemic issues, other factors add to the mammoth complexity the healthcare industry is facing. One such is Mortality: In the United States, during the year 1997 – 1998, where 120 people per 100,000 died annually from the conditions considered agreeable to healthcare. During the year 2006 – 2007, mortality agreeable to healthcare declined from 120 to 96. Since then, Citizens started to have higher anticipations of their healthcare providers, having more access to information than ever before, and are demanding increasing responsibility from their doctors, nurses and health plans.
In the 2010 Global CEO study, 93 percent of healthcare providers recognized the information explosion as the biggest factor anticipated to impact their organizations to a large degree over the next five years. The copiousness of data that bombards healthcare professionals both facilitates and complicates the ability of healthcare payers and providers to attain and influence desirable outcomes. However, using analytics to gain better understandings can help demonstrate value and achieve better outcomes, such as new treatments and technologies. Information leading to insight can help informed and educated consumers become more responsible for their own health. From handling small details to large processes, analytics can aid exploration and discovery; help design and plan policy and programs; improve service delivery and operations; enhance sustainability; mitigate risk; and provide a means for measuring and evaluating critical organizational data. Perhaps most important, it can expand access to healthcare, align pay with performance and help hold down growth in healthcare costs.
In developed nations, such as the United States, predictive analytics is the next big idea in medicine –the next fruition in statistics – and roles will change as a result. Patients will have to become better knowledgeable, Physician roles will likely change to more of a consultant, Hospitals, pharmaceutical companies and insurance providers will see changes as well.
“Your heart attack will arrive in two days.” The voiceover proclaims, “John’s heart attack didn’t come with a warning.” Not so with predictive analytics. That very message could be sent to John from his doctor who uses predictive analytics. Better yet, in our bright future, John might get the note from his doctor that says, “Your heart attack will occur eight years from now, unless …” – giving John the chance to restructure his life and change the outcome.
All in all, changes are coming. The genie is out of the box and, in fact, is building boxes for the rest of us. Yes, changes are coming, the “decision rules” are being developed and healthcare will never be the same again.